Opposition from the United States and Russia has put a proposed international framework for autonomous weapons at risk of failing to win consensus when governments meet Friday in Geneva. The 128 states party to the U.N.-hosted Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons have spent the week considering whether consensus can be reached on a non-binding text that could open negotiations on restrictions for lethal autonomous weapons systems, or LAWS. Defense News reported that three diplomats described the outcome as uncertain.
The immediate dispute centers on late proposed changes and deletions to a draft that has drawn support from a majority of participants. Two diplomatic sources said Washington and Moscow had sought revisions, while another diplomat warned that the negotiating window was narrowing. “The window is getting smaller to getting an agreement,” the diplomat said, as reported by Defense News.
A second diplomatic source said negotiators could run out of time and remove provisions debated over several years, creating a risk that no agreement would emerge. The states are set to decide Friday whether consensus can be reached on the text, which is intended to lead toward talks on prohibitions and regulations for lethal autonomous weapons systems.
The United States is seeking a document closer to guidelines than a legally binding treaty, according to a senior diplomat. That position has hardened over the past six months and rests on Washington’s view that existing international humanitarian law already provides a framework for governing the conduct of warfare. Russia, India and Turkey support the general position favoring greater flexibility, Defense News reported.
Washington has also worked to build support for its approach. Two diplomats said at least six countries received formal U.S. diplomatic approaches concerning the draft. One source said the approaches showed U.S. engagement in an effort to reach consensus. The Russian mission in Geneva did not comment, and the U.S. mission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The unresolved language includes references to “lethality” and a section on human judgment and control, according to one diplomatic source. Brazil, Ireland and several African states are among those backing a legally binding treaty. They argue that specific safeguards are needed to ensure meaningful human control over systems that can identify and engage targets with varying degrees of autonomy.
The negotiations concern weapons that have become a subject of growing debate as semi-autonomous systems appear in discussions about conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan and the Middle East. Human Rights Watch and the Stop Killer Robots campaign have warned that systems assisted by artificial intelligence may behave unpredictably and increase the risk of fatal errors. States agree that international humanitarian law applies to LAWS, but specifically binding international standards for those systems remain largely absent.
The urgency has also been framed in moral terms. In August, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric warned that the world was approaching a moral red line if autonomous weapons could kill without human involvement. The Friday decision will determine whether the participating states can reach consensus on the draft text.